Sunday, October 12, 2008

Liars, Damn Liars, and Statisticians

Chicago Board of Trade
Originally uploaded by luxomni
For the last couple of weeks, I have been losing about $1700 a day from my savings. I don't know where the bottom is, but I am still betting that it will come back ... some day.

Early this year, in February, I went to visit my broker. I had the idea to put an order to liquidate my holdings should Obama win. His response was "You're too late". People are already doing that. Then he said "Watch. As we get closer to the election and the more it looks like Obama will win, the lower the market will go. Buy then."

His change includes increasing taxation on capital gains. Get those nasty filty rich people. Oh, wait,that's me (and anyone else that actually gets up in the morning and goes to work. $250,000? Yeah right). So people are trying to get out of their holdings now - ahead of the rush. Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I may live to regret this, but I am digging in. I am still dollar cost averaging and this is where that is supposed to be good. More shares for the same money.

My biggest position is a couple hundred shares each of Altria and Phillip Morris International. I know that the Democrats and their lawyers will try to cut open the goose that lays those golden eggs. But I am hoping that our lawyers can beat their lawyers. Or at least that the Democrat Congressmen are as easily bribable when they are in power as they have been previously.

Just know that you will never hear this on CNN or even CNBC. But your broker knows. I know, anecdotal evidence - But, which do you actually get to see? The anecdotal or the statistical?

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